Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
August It's technically been August for a little over an hour now, so I guess it's time to start a new header. and with that comes an AoI! When will the fun stop? Cyclone1(01:09 UTC -1/08/2007) Week1 AoI: North Gulf Stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf. TWC has mentioned this, saying that this area needs to be watched for the formation of a possible low. A few models develop this, taking into the Panhandle as a depression. Interesting? Cyclone1(01:09 UTC -1/08/2007) :Not unless you're making vacation plans for the Panhandle. -- SkyFury 04:10, 1 August 2007 (UTC) ::I think more likely a storm will form EAST of Florida. -Winter123 04:24, 1 August 2007 (UTC) :::No, I think the Gulf is definitely the place to watch. Just west of Florida. Upper level winds are nearly perfect, SST's are very warm, all we need is one flare up of convection, then all eyes on the Gulf. Cyclone1(13:27 UTC -1/08/2007) ::::Convection flaring up nicely, now. Cyclone1(14:21 UTC -1/08/2007) :::::Recon is flying out tomorrow. (What? Cyclone1, you're seeing things!!) Nope, it's true. This will most likely be 90L later today. Cyclone1(15:45 UTC -1/08/2007) ::::::I was just saying because the GFS develops it basically on land, whereas the CMC moves it over florida before blowing it up into a hurricane, which is the scenario I'd prefer. I doubt this will be a TD if it moves onto land like the models predict. -Winter123 18:42, 1 August 2007 (UTC) :::::::Too early to make a judgment on this one. It's definately an area to watch. Right now, though it doesn't even have a low pressure center. -- SkyFury 21:13, 1 August 2007 (UTC) Gone. Cyclone1(22:20 UTC -4/08/2007) :Yeah, I never did get what the NHC was so excited about. Early on, I thought it might have had a chance, but I wrote it off a couple of days ago. -- SkyFury 03:23, 5 August 2007 (UTC) Week 2 AoI: East Carribean Interesting little blob in the Carib here. A few (that means multiple) global models develop this sucker. Conditions are good and getting better ahead of it. Could be a Gulf storm. Thoughts? Cyclone1(01:59 UTC -9/08/2007) :Thoughts- In a normal season I'd say it's a no-brainer this will develop. Almost no shear and great convection. But it's 2007 so right when you think it's about to be named it'll just go 'poof' and blue sky is all that will be left -Winter123 04:49, 9 August 2007 (UTC) ::Haha, excellent point. Joe Bastardi expects a tropical storm at least, and the EURO, CMC, and NOGAPS models all develop it. Maybe it'll be like TS Bret in 05, but stronger and further north. Cyclone1(21:39 UTC -9/08/2007) :::Are you talking about the thing near Jamaica? It is FAR too early to say anything with regards to this one. Predicting it to be a tropical storm is like predicting a fetus to grow into the man that finds a cure for cancer. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Apparently, the NHC seems to really like this fetus. It puts it as a "High-amplitude tropical wave" (just like the one off of Africa), and only recently took it off of the development page. It's been pretty consistent with it's doings, though, so I think, a day later, it is only SOMEWHAT too early to say something about this one (no offense). 68.100.190.56 The 12Z NAM shows a well established tropical storm moving into the Gulf soon. I know, I know, it's the NAM, which is less reliable than the CMC, but still it's interesting. Slow development means just that....sloooow development. Cyclone1(16:59 UTC -11/08/2007) :Convection has significantly increased over the past six hours, but it still doesn't have a low pressure center associated with it. -- SkyFury 02:27, 12 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: North of Bermuda What the frick is this? We appear to have a very intense ball of deep convection in the middle of nowhere. It doesn't even really show up on the surface analysis. Logic wants to tell me it's nothing, but that's a lot of bright colors for an aimless thunderhead. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :?!?!?!?!?! It looks like it just blew up from the end of a front under extreme shear and created a favorable upper level environment for itself. It looks like it already has a broad LLC because it was part of a front, and again, all shear is passing north of it (It's way up over Northern Vermont...) as it somehow blew up an upper level High over itself. Could it be an out-of-nowhere Dean? Maybe this year WILL be interesting after all! :D :Great catch by the way! -Winter123 05:57, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::Hmm... that's way cool! First of all, an AoI I didn't declare (wtf?!) and, it came from ntohing! Chances are likely low, but man, it is impressive. Cyclone1(14:17 UTC -10/08/2007) :::GODDANGIT! All the fun stuff happens when I'm away! But, yeah, not only does the NHC seem completely oblivious to it, but it's there, it's strong, and I think it's rotating. This one might have a shot. :::Now, can someone please tell me how Chantal was? 68.100.190.56 ::::Aw, it's nowhere to be seen anymore? Gone as quickly as it came up/. -Winter123 18:53, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :::::Oh it's there, but the shear tore it apart and scattered its remains across the north Atlantic. -- SkyFury 21:45, 10 August 2007 (UTC) Just a blob. Gone, likely not coming back. Cyclone1(22:03 UTC -10/08/2007) :That's one wierd looking blob. Not looking like much now, but still, it should be dying, right? (Not trying to imply anything). It's not going to develop, but it's not going away either... 68.100.190.56 90L.INVEST AoI: Wave about to come off africa at ~10N Many, if not all models agree we will see a Tropical Storm just off the coast of Africa by Monday. This could be our storm to start the Cape Verde Season! *crosses fingers* -Winter123 05:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC) Could someone please post a link to where you all go to look at the development models? Is this just from WeatherUnderground, FNMOC, or are there some really cool sites that I'm unaware of? 134.163.255.11 14:19, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :You mean something like this? Anyway, conditions ahead of this wave are really favorable for development. This could be very interesting. Cyclone1(14:22 UTC -10/08/2007) ::Either the models have forgottent their ocean couplings again (*cough*Ioke*cough*) or there is something strange out there that I cannot see. 68.100.190.56 :::Yeah it looks like it's being eaten away on the north side by dry air just like all the others. I can't see this developing anymore... -Winter123 18:51, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::::If that bundle of showers gains any organization by the time it reaches the Windward Islands, call me, but until then, I'm not all that impressed. I've seen tons of waves just like this one look quite good coming off of Africa but then just break apart as soon as they pass the Cape Verdes. -- SkyFury 21:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC) No dry air. At all. None. Zip. Every model, (please take special notice on the word every) develops this. It'll be interesting. Cyclone1(21:59 UTC -10/08/2007) :Plenty of shear though http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html. This wave's under 30-40 knots of it. That's pretty fierce. -- SkyFury 03:36, 11 August 2007 (UTC) ::ARGH! THIS THING WON'T LET ME POST, BUT IF THIS GETS THROUGH, IT'S LOOKING PRETTY NICE GODDARNIT! Hold on, did this get through? Ok then, it is (look on meteosat for East Africa) looking pretty nice. 68.100.190.56 :::Hm it does look pretty good. Keep an eye on this it might be a TD in 24 hours if it keeps looking like this. On that note, I'm off. -Winter123 07:51, 11 August 2007 (UTC) It's been firing deep convection for a while now (~12 hrs). That's persistence. 90L should be classified at anytime. Cyclone1(12:56 UTC -11/08/2007) :Interestingly enough, the models are seeming less ecstatic the more this thing develops. I put it as a TS going into the Carribean, curving ever so slightly to the north. The major models, however, agree than an area of low pressure will develop of the coast of Africa (this does not count that last one, Ukmet, because as far as I can tell it has a mental retardation problem;, it does make a low, just doesn't close it off) and move into the central Atlantic at least at TS strength. As we've seen earlier this season (we have, trust me) the models do often underpredict, so I predict Dean, maximum cat 2, minimum TS. It's looking that good, that consistently. By the way, the NHC has recognized it, and as a "High-amplitude tropical wave", so it must mean that they've decided it's time to give up their vacation and start working again (has anyone else noticed they don't show much excitement in their updates?).68.100.190.56 ::There already is a low off the coast. It's now a development game. I predict this could be a potential threat for Puerto Rico, and eventually Florida. Cyclone1(16:57 UTC -11/08/2007) 90L.INVEST The official Navy site is down, but it's on the back up. Behold 90L! Picture won't show up, I hope it's for the Africa wave. Cyclone1(19:23 UTC -11/08/2007) :Ok, the link doesn't work, but trust me it's up. Cyclone1(19:30 UTC -11/08/2007) ::Quikscat shows a closed low! Tropical Depression by definition (kinda). Cyclone1(22:04 UTC -11/08/2007) :::Latest TWO: A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. :::Ahh, sh*t! I do not like the sound of that. The wave looks pretty unassuming right now but that's one of the things I don't like. A lot of feared names have formed the exact same way. Of course, so have a lot of fish-spinners but still, that's the Devil's Breeding Ground out there. -- SkyFury 23:19, 11 August 2007 (UTC) GFDL and HWRF both develop this into at least a category two. HWRF, possible three. Cyclone1(01:00 UTC -12/08/2007) :More important, where is it going? The tracking model site I've been using isn't working, so that adds to the discomfort. If it wants to turn out to sea and strengthen into a Category 4, I'd love to see it. That stuff's fun to watch, but I don't want it to get big and hit a place where it can hurt people. -- SkyFury 02:24, 12 August 2007 (UTC) ::The last time periods for the model show it just at the Virgin Islands. Judging by the location of the Bermuda High, it's likely start curving to the northwest shortly thereafter. Won't know for at least a couple of days (if it does turn into a hurricane) if it would threaten anybody. Wxdiva 03:05, 12 August 2007 (UTC) :::Hmm, that's interesting, thanks. -- SkyFury 03:09, 12 August 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)